A man walks past empty Molotov cocktail bottles on Kiev's Independence Square. Photograph: Sergei Supinsky/AFP/Getty Images
What happens next?
Ukraine is far from out of the woods. Talk of secession by the Crimea and the country's east is still doing the rounds and one scenario being discussed is the annexation of Crimea by Russia. This would be a repeat performance of the occupation by Russian forces of Abkhazia in 2008 and could lead to an alarming confrontation between Moscow and whatever future government emerges in Kiev. Yesterday Russian "delegates" were in Kharkiv as Crimean political figures called for "protection". It is possible the threat of a fracturing Ukraine is being deliberately stage-managed. Much will hinge on whether Russia stays on the sidelines. While the opposition is now pushing for earlier elections than had been envisaged in the EU-brokered deal to end the violence, the May elections being asked for by some might exacerbate the crisis.
Ukraine is far from out of the woods. Talk of secession by the Crimea and the country's east is still doing the rounds and one scenario being discussed is the annexation of Crimea by Russia. This would be a repeat performance of the occupation by Russian forces of Abkhazia in 2008 and could lead to an alarming confrontation between Moscow and whatever future government emerges in Kiev. Yesterday Russian "delegates" were in Kharkiv as Crimean political figures called for "protection". It is possible the threat of a fracturing Ukraine is being deliberately stage-managed. Much will hinge on whether Russia stays on the sidelines. While the opposition is now pushing for earlier elections than had been envisaged in the EU-brokered deal to end the violence, the May elections being asked for by some might exacerbate the crisis.
What's Russia's beef in all this?
One of Vladimir Putin's key regional policies is the creation of a Eurasian Union which is due to be inaugurated in 2015. Critics say this is an effort to pull back together various bits of the old Soviet Union in a new regional bloc and Putin is keen for Ukraine to be a cornerstone of his new grouping. From the Kremlin's point of view, the EU deal and last week's EU mediation – much like Nato's flirting with Georgia, which contributed to the Russian-Georgian conflict in 2008 – represents a serious incursion into Moscow's backyard. While Moscow appeared to back compromise to end the violence, perhaps because it has no desire for a civil war on its borders, a key question is how far Moscow would allow Ukraine to drift away from its sphere of influence.
One of Vladimir Putin's key regional policies is the creation of a Eurasian Union which is due to be inaugurated in 2015. Critics say this is an effort to pull back together various bits of the old Soviet Union in a new regional bloc and Putin is keen for Ukraine to be a cornerstone of his new grouping. From the Kremlin's point of view, the EU deal and last week's EU mediation – much like Nato's flirting with Georgia, which contributed to the Russian-Georgian conflict in 2008 – represents a serious incursion into Moscow's backyard. While Moscow appeared to back compromise to end the violence, perhaps because it has no desire for a civil war on its borders, a key question is how far Moscow would allow Ukraine to drift away from its sphere of influence.
Who are the protesters?
The shorthand that has been used to describe the protests in Ukraine portrays the conflict as one between a largely Ukrainian-speaking Catholic west and centre keen to be closer to the EU, and a Russian-speaking east and Crimea that looks to Moscow. While containing large elements of truth, this is not the whole story. Different sectors of society have invested competing hopes in the protests that broke out in November, triggered by President Viktor Yanukovych's decision to pull out of a deal with the EU and IMF that would have led to closer integration with Europe. Yanukovych chose instead a $15bn credit line and gas subsidies from Moscow. The first protesters were largely young middle-class students and liberals. The breaking up of that protest drew in an older, more nationalistic group, some of whom had served in the old Soviet army. The most recent violence has seen hardline rightwing nationalists, some allied with Pravy Sektor, who are not interested in political compromise and have boasted of arming themselves.
The shorthand that has been used to describe the protests in Ukraine portrays the conflict as one between a largely Ukrainian-speaking Catholic west and centre keen to be closer to the EU, and a Russian-speaking east and Crimea that looks to Moscow. While containing large elements of truth, this is not the whole story. Different sectors of society have invested competing hopes in the protests that broke out in November, triggered by President Viktor Yanukovych's decision to pull out of a deal with the EU and IMF that would have led to closer integration with Europe. Yanukovych chose instead a $15bn credit line and gas subsidies from Moscow. The first protesters were largely young middle-class students and liberals. The breaking up of that protest drew in an older, more nationalistic group, some of whom had served in the old Soviet army. The most recent violence has seen hardline rightwing nationalists, some allied with Pravy Sektor, who are not interested in political compromise and have boasted of arming themselves.
What do they want?
Maps that have appeared in the western media have tended to show Ukraine as a straight split between west and east, but the electoral map of the 2010 elections which Yanukovych won is actually more complicated, showing different competitions in different regions. In the western cities, a number of analysts have noted, the pro-European argument is actually a shorthand for various political discontents, including a growing anger at the domination of the country's economy by the president's crony oligarchs, a lack of rule of law and a constitution that concentrated power in the president. Where there have been protests in the Russian-speaking east like Kharkiv, the issues have largely been the same, suggesting a wider dissatisfaction with Yanukovych's political style that saw some members of his Party of the Regions recently abandon him.
Maps that have appeared in the western media have tended to show Ukraine as a straight split between west and east, but the electoral map of the 2010 elections which Yanukovych won is actually more complicated, showing different competitions in different regions. In the western cities, a number of analysts have noted, the pro-European argument is actually a shorthand for various political discontents, including a growing anger at the domination of the country's economy by the president's crony oligarchs, a lack of rule of law and a constitution that concentrated power in the president. Where there have been protests in the Russian-speaking east like Kharkiv, the issues have largely been the same, suggesting a wider dissatisfaction with Yanukovych's political style that saw some members of his Party of the Regions recently abandon him.
What now for Yulia Tymoshenko?
On her release from prison in Kharkiv on Saturday, Tymoshenko announced she intended to run in the elections on 25 May. Despite being regarded as a flawed figure, whose own political rivalries have contributed to Ukraine's problems, Tymoshenko, who enjoys cordial relations with Putin, might be viewed in Moscow as a compromise candidate able to work with the two sides, and position Ukraine between the EU and Moscow.
On her release from prison in Kharkiv on Saturday, Tymoshenko announced she intended to run in the elections on 25 May. Despite being regarded as a flawed figure, whose own political rivalries have contributed to Ukraine's problems, Tymoshenko, who enjoys cordial relations with Putin, might be viewed in Moscow as a compromise candidate able to work with the two sides, and position Ukraine between the EU and Moscow.
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